Bloc totals converge, but party projections differ
Updated exit polls from Channels 12, 13 and 11 projected 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 52 for the Jewish opposition and 18 for Arab-led parties. Neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Jewish opposition reached the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. Likud remained the largest party, but the projections did not establish a viable governing coalition.
Channel 12 projected Likud at 24 seats, Yashar at 22, Bennett at 12, the Joint List at 11, the Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu at nine each, Shas at eight, Ra’am at seven, and United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism at six each. Winter and Zelekha were reported below the electoral threshold.
Channel 13 and “The Index” revised their opposition–coalition–Arab-party split from 53–50–17 to 52–50–18, raising the Joint List from 10 to 11 and lowering Bennett’s Beyachad from 14 to 13.
Their other initial projections were Likud at 25, Yashar at 23, the Democrats at nine, Yisrael Beiteinu, Ra’am and United Torah Judaism at seven each, and Shas, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism and Zehut at six each. Winter, Yaron Zelekha and Leitner were below the threshold. Channel 11 also reportedly revised Bennett to 13 and the Joint List to 11.
An i24 poll by Tzuriel Sharon projected Likud at 27, Yashar at 20, Beyachad at 15, Golan and the Joint List at nine each, Shas at eight, United Torah Judaism, Ra’am and Otzma Yehudit at seven each, Religious Zionism at six and Yisrael Beiteinu at five.
These were reported projections, not official results. The numerical exit-poll results had not been independently confirmed as of approximately 10:02 PM Israel time on October 27. Subsequent figures updated that snapshot, but their final accuracy, threshold outcomes and government-formation implications remained unresolved.
Turnout and participation
Final turnout was reported at 77.7%, up 7.1 percentage points from 2022. Arab-sector turnout was reported at 80%, with no reporting time specified.
Commentator Segal suggested Arab turnout may have exceeded Jewish turnout for the first time and attributed roughly four percentage points of the overall increase to Arab voters. In his assessment, which bloc mobilized the remaining increase would help determine the balance.
Ultra-Orthodox turnout was reported as broadly similar to 2022, except in Beitar Illit, where it declined from 81.34% to 72.72%; the reporting time was unspecified.
According to the military, turnout among IDF soldiers stood at 68% at 5:00 PM, compared with 65% at the same hour in 2022.
