Segal sees the count changing coalition choices
Amit Segal initially assessed that the prevailing direction was toward a minority government. He argued that a stable government would require breaking a promise against sitting either with Netanyahu or with Arab parties, noting that Bennett and Lieberman had avoided committing to unity or a minority government. In his later analysis, Segal argued that Netanyahu had not yet won but the Change Bloc had been defeated.
Segal described an exceptionally organized Change Bloc campaign, including vote-sharing agreements and efforts to fly Israelis home, yet said the count showed roughly the same seat total as in the previous election. He argued that demographics outweighed campaign energy and that its messaging failed to persuade.
In his assessment, voters accepted neither a portrayal of the war as a complete victory nor as a complete failure. Disgust at ultra-Orthodox draft evasion, he argued, had not produced acceptance of dependence on parties he characterized as draft refusers and anti-Zionists.
Segal argued that Eisenkot no longer met his own criteria for a minority government because it would require the Joint List’s active support. He considered that unworkable after October 7, citing six immediate relatives of people murdered by Hamas potentially sitting alongside lawmakers whom he accused of portraying Hamas as a charitable organization.
He outlined three difficult options for Lieberman, Bennett and Eisenkot: another election without the thousands of Israelis abroad who rushed home to vote; joining Netanyahu on difficult terms while breaking campaign promises; or seeking support from Ra’am and the Joint List, which he described as emboldened by victory.
Segal called Arab turnout extraordinary and historic, said its levels required thorough examination, and suggested that preventing either side from reaching 61 seats might ultimately push Jewish political rivals toward unity.
Joint List celebrates
Members at Joint List headquarters sang “Biladi, Biladi” (“My Country, My Country”). Former MK Osama Saadi said:
“We dedicate this victory to our people in Gaza, the West Bank, and occupied Jerusalem.”
Trump credits his endorsement
President Trump claimed his endorsement had reversed Netanyahu’s electoral fortunes, turning an apparent decisive defeat into “a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu.” This was Trump’s assessment, with the count still incomplete.
IDF reports 79.9% soldier turnout
The IDF reported final soldier turnout of 79.9%, an increase of 6.2% compared with the 2022 election.
Conscripts, career soldiers and reservists began voting a week earlier at more than 890 military polling stations across Israel and beyond its borders, including posts in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
