Competing election projections
Channel 14’s final poll before the October 27 election gives Netanyahu’s bloc 62 seats, above the 61 needed for a majority, against 44 for the non-Arab opposition and 14 for Arab parties, all unchanged. News 16/Maagar Mochot’s October 22 survey gives the coalition bloc 52, including Winter, against 50 for the opposition, 14 for Arab parties and four for Hendel–Zelekha.
Channel 14/NEXT DATA, conducted under Shlomo Filber among 7,937 respondents, projects Likud 30, Eisenkot’s Yashar 20, Bennett’s Together 11, Shas nine, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) eight, Democrats eight, Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit eight, Joint List eight, Smotrich–Zehut seven, Ra’am six and Yisrael Beiteinu five.
Together gains one, Shas and Democrats fall, and UTJ rises, leaving bloc totals unchanged. Netanyahu retains a 55%–45% lead over Eisenkot in suitability for prime minister.
News 16, reporting over 5,000 respondents and a 1.4% statistical margin of error, projects Yashar 20, Likud 17, Together 14, Otzma Yehudit nine, Democrats nine, Joint List nine, UTJ eight, Shas seven, Yisrael Beiteinu seven, Smotrich–Zehut seven, Ra’am five, Winter’s Am Yisrael four and Hendel–Zelekha four.
Its accompanying report says Eisenkot leads Netanyahu personally despite the coalition bloc’s two-seat advantage.
Both Winter and Hendel–Zelekha cross the threshold in News 16. In Channel 14, they remain below 3.25%: Winter falls from 1.7% to 1.5%, and Hendel–Zelekha from 2.2% to 1.9%. Channel 12’s October 21 poll gave Winter four seats. No merger or alternative arrangement tested materially changes Channel 14’s majority.
Channel 14 is 11–13 seats above Israel Hayom and Zman Yisrael’s October 22 projections of 50 and 51 for Netanyahu’s bloc, and News 13 and Channel 12’s October 21 figures of 49 and 51. Persistent differences between pollsters and models do not establish a sudden electorate-wide shift.
Bennett’s modest recovery matches recent gains elsewhere, though Channel 14 still places him substantially below most other polls. Eisenkot is stable there, with recent results elsewhere generally at 20–23; Smotrich–Zehut’s unchanged seven seats reinforce its more secure position across pollsters.
Channel 14’s non-Arab opposition and Arab parties total only 58, leaving threshold crossings and seat allocation central to reaching 61.
UTJ endorsement unresolved
The Gerrer Rebbe reportedly refuses to sign the Hasidic Council of Torah Sages’ proclamation supporting United Torah Judaism. Traditionally published the Friday before the election, it remains under discussion.
UTJ cites efforts to add names and ensure it is issued on behalf of the entire Council, including him.
Voter-count transmission barred
The High Court prohibited party representatives from digitally transmitting polling-station voter numbers. Justices Kabub and Ronen formed the majority; Justice Mintz dissented.
Ben-Gvir disputes demolition directive
According to Otzma Yehudit material, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he would continue participating in Negev operations to demolish illegal structures despite Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara’s directive to refrain.
He called it unlawful and beyond her authority, arguing ministerial oversight and attendance were permissible and desirable.
He pledged to continue what he called governance reform and the return of state lands to state hands, inspect demolitions and back police and civil servants implementing his policy.
He accused her and her predecessors of allowing lawlessness and said more than 19,000 illegal structures had been demolished in the Negev during his term despite what he called her obstruction.
Otzma Yehudit | Ballot letter: ב (Bet)
Sponsored by Otzma Yehudit. Commissioned by Daniel Lauder: info@otzma.org.
