Bennett and Lapid face different coalition constraints
Segal identified two leading scenarios: a minority government comprising forty-something Knesset members and dependent on the goodwill of United Torah Judaism, Ra’am and the Joint List; or a national unity government with Netanyahu.
He doubted Bennett would again accept the political cost of breaking two core campaign promises: failing to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews and agreeing to sit with Arab parties.
With another election potentially approaching, Segal argued that Bennett could lose support among military service members and right-wing voters, leaving him at a disadvantage while Eisenkot campaigned from the Prime Minister’s Office.
A unity government with Netanyahu would pose a different problem for Lapid. Segal noted that Lapid had not served in a government with Netanyahu for more than a decade, including during wartime and the COVID pandemic.
He doubted Lapid would agree now, especially after October 7, merely in exchange for the Interior or Economy Ministry.
Another election could change Bennett’s calculation
“The situation is a pita,” a senior party official said a week before the election, according to Segal, when it was already clear that neither side would reach 61 seats.
Segal agreed with that description and suggested that another election might give Bennett an opportunity to improve his position. Yashar campaigned under the slogan “This time, Eisenkot.” Segal suggested Bennett’s possible message would be “And this time—me.”
He argued that the prospect would shape Bennett’s room for maneuver in coalition talks, which could continue beyond the beginning of 2027.
Segal had assessed that Bennett would recommend Eisenkot because the election results left him no other practical option.
Nevertheless, he urged his colleagues among Channel 12 News’s political reporters to station a camera crew in Ra’anana for the next two months, reflecting his assessment that Bennett’s decisions would remain central.
Party consultations and recommendations take shape
Bennett has recommended Eisenkot to form the government. Lapid and Lieberman met this evening, and United Torah Judaism’s leadership is meeting ahead of consultations at the President’s Residence.
Segal assessed that it would not be a major surprise if United Torah Judaism declined to recommend Netanyahu.
Assuming Eisenkot received more recommendations, Segal expected him to receive four weeks to form a government, with the possibility of a two-week extension. He considered it difficult to envision Netanyahu receiving the first opportunity.
The leaders of the Joint List and Ra’am are scheduled to meet tomorrow for the first time since the elections. Their stated message:
“We will do everything to replace Netanyahu’s government.”
Likud accuses Eisenkot and his partners of abandoning promises
Likud accused Eisenkot and his partners of trampling on citizens’ trust, breaking all their promises regarding cooperation with parties it described as supporting terrorism, and working to form a government with them.
The party also accused them of abandoning the military draft of ultra-Orthodox Jews in pursuit of power after four years of relentless attacks on the ultra-Orthodox community. Likud said this must not be allowed to happen.
