Segal argues Likud voters were underestimated
Segal recounted that relatives of a senior public official, affiliated with the ultra-Orthodox Religious Zionist movement known as Hardal, called the official on the morning before the election. They said U.S. President Donald Trump was apparently expected to call Rabbi Tau, Noam’s spiritual leader, within hours and ask him to withdraw the party in Netanyahu’s favor.
“The rabbi, by the way, will refuse,” they confidently told him. According to Segal, Trump never called.
Segal presented the anecdote as an illustration of overconfidence, complacency and detachment from political reality across the political camp, rather than a problem confined to Noam or Ofer Winter. He argued that the election results exposed the limits of support for almost all components of the right-wing bloc.
He said Noam collapsed to a few thousand votes and lost its Knesset seat. He described approximately 100,000 votes for Winter as wasted, saying most of those voters had previously supported Ayelet Shaked in 2022 and that their votes had largely been unlikely to translate into representation from the outset.
Segal argued that Itamar Ben-Gvir’s direct confrontation with Netanyahu was a serious mistake driven by arrogance that undermined his ambition to win a double-digit number of seats.
He described Tally Gotliv as all that remained of Ben-Gvir’s ten-seat ambitions and predicted that she would not become justice minister and Ben-Gvir would not become defense minister. He also portrayed Winter’s political effort as having disappeared and suggested Hendel could now turn to founding another party.
By contrast, Segal credited Likud voters, whom he described as predominantly traditional and Mizrahi Jews from Holon, Bat Yam, Rishon LeZion and peripheral communities, with determining the election’s outcome. He asserted that their children make up the majority of the IDF.
Segal argued that these voters had been dismissed as “Bibi-ists,” portrayed as a herd and delegitimized through opposition to their party leader. He contrasted their decision to consolidate their votes with the Religious Zionist camp’s two years of divisions among smaller parties.
He said their quiet turnout was missed by opinion polls, including predictions of 18 Likud seats, and by election-night exit polls. He suggested that their limited representation in the media contributed to a failure to understand their priorities or adequately account for them in polling and public life.
Segal also criticized the assumption that they would support a rival candidate because of ethnicity. He compared that reasoning to assuming Ashkenazi voters in Ramat HaSharon supported Netanyahu because his family name had once been Mileikowsky. He warned that continued disregard for this electorate would produce further political misjudgments.
Segal reports Mossad assistance in Qatar investigation
According to Segal, Mossad has joined Shin Bet in investigating suspected Qatari election fraud and interference in the Israeli elections. He reported that Shin Bet requested assistance with the investigation into alleged election-related Qatari funding.
Separately, Segal said Guy Peleg’s report concerning “Ra’amgate” was accurate. He reported that Netanyahu’s acting chief of staff passed intelligence information implicating Ra’am activists directly to the police commissioner’s office, after which suspects were arrested.
Segal said police repeatedly issued statements and briefed the media about the allegations against Ra’am on Election Day without disclosing that the complaint originated in the Prime Minister’s Office.
He further reported that officials at Lahav 433 acknowledged that, at present, there was no case at all.
