Count leaves both blocs short
The October 29 evening projection gave Likud 27 seats after a gain from Shas, leaving the current coalition on 53 seats and the Change Bloc on 48. Ra’am held eight and the Joint List 11, counted separately. Neither bloc reached the 61-seat majority.
Yashar held 21 seats; Bennett’s Beyachad (Together) 12; the Democrats eight; Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism seven each; and Shas and Religious Zionism–Zehut six each. Shas fell to six for the first time since 1992. Ra’am’s earlier gain from the Joint List left their combined total at 19.
The Reservists and the Economic Party, at 2.72%, and Amcha Yisrael, at 1.68%, remained below the 3.25% electoral threshold.
The 7:09 PM update displayed approximately 100.0% counted and said regular-vote counting had ended, but reports differed on whether double-envelope counting was complete or in its final stages. Final results were due in the official gazette by November 4.
The Elections Committee revised its double-envelope estimate, including soldiers’ votes, from approximately 600,000 to 430,000–480,000. Channel 12’s Amit Segal cautioned against expecting dramatic changes, arguing that soldiers’ votes carried less relative weight because more voters had declared a disability to vote at a station of their choice.
Morning reports used unreconciled totals: Prog and Sharon Online reported 5,224,730 ballots, including 5,201,559 valid votes; a separate seat-allocation breakdown reported 5,129,748 votes.
Earlier projections also differed from final polls: Likud’s then-26 seats compared with Channel 12’s 21 and Channel 14’s 30.
In his analysis on his Telegram channel, Amit Segal said Eisenkot and Bennett fell below some expectations, while the Arab parties’ 19 exceeded several forecasts of 14–16. He assessed that different models and vote snapshots did not establish an overnight opinion shift.
Final Channel 12 and News 13 polls had projected possible 61-seat opposition combinations with Ra’am but without the Joint List.
Flooding closed roads in the Eilat and Arava region and cut off Eilat’s main entrance during Tuesday’s election. An Israeli Air Force helicopter airlifted dozens of military ballot boxes from southern bases to the Knesset that night to reach the committee on time.
Complaints and enforcement disputes
Likud alleged the election was “stolen” by Arab parties, citing claims of thousands of envelopes containing cash and Ra’am ballots, intimidation, joint entry into booths, duplicate identities, envelope-voter discrepancies and prohibited voter-mobilization software. It said it was submitting hundreds of testimonies and pieces of evidence; the committee initially said its request was under review.
Police officials initially said there was no investigative or intelligence evidence supporting the election-theft claim. The commissioner pledged impartial investigation of every complaint.
Additional arrests were reported in the alleged Ra’am envelope-bribery affair; Segal reported four additional suspects being questioned. The reporting did not establish that these cases, Likud’s complaints and the foreign-influence inquiry concerned the same incidents.
Likud official Shagi Keizler alleged that authorities had contacted none of the witnesses named in Election Day complaints. He cited 1,183 complaints, but his five listed categories totaled 652, leaving the breakdown incomplete.
Segal cited reported 80% turnout in Rahat and assessed that Sohlberg wanted alleged foreign funding behind an unprecedented turnout increase investigated.
Segal questioned Acting Elections Committee Director General Din Livne’s dismissal of Arab-sector election-theft claims about an hour before the foreign-funding affair became public, contrasting it with earlier warnings Segal characterized as directed at the right.
