Provisional count leaves bloc balance unchanged
Approximately 91.7% of votes have been counted, according to Prog’s update citing Central Elections Committee data from 7:45 AM Israel time on October 29. Prog and Sharon Online report 5,224,730 ballots counted, including 5,201,559 valid votes and 23,171 invalid votes, with results processed from 11,920 polling stations.
The latest projection gives Ra’am eight seats, gaining one at the Joint List’s expense and reducing it to 11. Their combined total remains 19. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to receive 53 seats and the opposition bloc 48, leaving neither with the 61 required for a Knesset majority. All 120 seats are allocated, but results remain provisional.
Likud leads with 26 seats and 20.7% of valid votes, followed by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! with 21 seats (16.2%), Naftali Bennett’s Together with 12 (9.0%), and the Joint List with 11 (9.2%). The Democrats and Ra’am receive eight seats each, with 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively.
Yisrael Beiteinu receives seven seats (5.9%), as do United Torah Judaism (5.6%), Otzma Yehudit (5.6%) and Shas (5.3%). Religious Zionism–Zehut receives six (4.7%). The Reservists and the Economic Party list, at approximately 2.6%, remains below the 3.25% electoral threshold and is projected to receive no seats.
Separate allocation breakdown uses a different vote total
A separate seat-allocation breakdown reports 5,129,748 votes, a threshold of 167,717 votes and a seat-allocation quota of 40,768 votes. It lists 135,574 votes for The Reservists and the Economic Party, below its displayed threshold.
That breakdown awards five surplus-vote seats: one each to Yashar!, Together, Ra’am, Shas and Religious Zionism–Zehut. The reports do not reconcile the differing vote totals.
Channel 12’s Amit Segal says surplus-vote agreements and the Bader–Ofer allocation method currently give the right-wing bloc a 3–2 advantage in surplus-seat allocation, with Shas on track to lose a seat to Likud.
Double-envelope counting
Channel 12’s Amit Segal reports that double-envelope counting has begun, although those results had not entered the overall tally at the time of his assessment.
Outstanding regular polling-station results also remain subject to verification, and seat allocations may change. The committee’s published notice sets November 4 as the deadline for publishing final results in the official gazette.
Segal cautions against expecting dramatic changes from double-envelope ballots. He argues that soldiers’ votes now carry less relative weight within that count because more voters have declared a disability to vote at a polling station of their choice.
First-round figures cited alongside this assessment list the Joint List at 1%, Shas at 3% and United Torah Judaism at 3%. Another figure, 13.5%, is unlabeled and cannot be interpreted.
