Israeli warnings and aircraft sortie
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of renewing nuclear-weapons efforts and told the October 21 Bahad 1 officer graduation that his directive to the IDF, Mossad and security agencies was to topple Iran’s regime.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said Iran and its proxies had attempted attacks intended to influence Israel’s October 27 election. He warned that Iran’s weakness could drive extreme measures, said Israel was prepared to thwart attacks and retaliate, and declared:
“If Iran attacks Israel, Iran will burn!”
Axios reported that dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew through Syrian and Iraqi airspace to Iran’s border on Monday, more than 800 miles from Israel, before returning. Israel notified Washington beforehand, describing the sortie as training for deterrence and “power projection” ahead of the election. U.S. officials said Israel knew Iranian air defenses would detect it.
Some Israeli and U.S. officials called the sortie ordinary deterrence. Axios nevertheless reported a risk of miscalculation and renewed war. Some U.S. sources assessed that Israel hoped Iran would fire at the aircraft, providing justification for strikes; this was their interpretation of Israeli intent.
U.S. attack decisions and deployments
The Financial Times, citing three people familiar with the matter, reported that President Trump blocked a major, multi-day Israeli attack planned for the weekend of October 10 against Iranian nuclear facilities, power plants and other critical infrastructure. He reportedly feared renewed war before the November 3 U.S. midterms, consistent with his statement: “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterms.”
Washington reportedly conveyed through Pakistan that it would strike Pickaxe Mountain, which houses nuclear facilities. Trump said the remaining decision was how the United States wanted to win.
Fox News reported that the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group and 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit were expected in the Middle East by the end of November, adding roughly 10,000 sailors and Marines alongside the USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington, reportedly operating in the Arabian Sea.
The report came a day after Secretary of War Pete Hegseth reportedly met Netanyahu secretly at Ovda Air Base. Hegseth acknowledged visiting U.S. forces in Israel and speaking with Netanyahu but withheld details; Trump also declined to elaborate.
Iranian threats and leadership
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that further escalation would threaten civilian lives and the global economy. Parliamentary committee chairman Ebrahim Azizi threatened to wipe Israel off the map following any operational misstep, regardless of its election results.
IRNA said Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to discuss the conflict with Israel and the United States, national unity, economic challenges, deterrence and strategic partnerships.
The IRGC announced plans to unveil a “Father of All Bombs,” without details, amid reports that Trump was considering the U.S. “Mother of All Bombs” against Iranian energy infrastructure if fighting resumes.
