Channel 14 projects an unchanged 62-seat majority
Channel 14’s final poll before the October 27 election gives Netanyahu’s bloc 62 seats, one above the 61 needed for a majority. The NEXT DATA survey, conducted under Shlomo Filber among 7,937 respondents, projects 44 seats for the non-Arab opposition and 14 for Arab parties. All three totals are unchanged.
Likud holds 30 seats and Eisenkot’s Yashar 20. Bennett’s Together rises from 10 to 11, Shas falls to nine, United Torah Judaism rises to eight, and the Democrats fall to eight.
Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit remains at eight, alongside the Joint List at eight, Smotrich–Zehut at seven, Ra’am at six and Yisrael Beiteinu at five. These internal changes leave the bloc totals unchanged.
Netanyahu retains his 55%–45% lead over Eisenkot in the survey’s direct comparison of suitability for prime minister.
Below the 3.25% electoral threshold, Ofer Winter falls from 1.7% to 1.5%, while Hendel–Zelekha declines from 2.2% to 1.9%. Neither enters the Knesset in this projection, contrasting with Channel 12’s October 21 poll, which gave Winter four seats.
No new merger or alternative arrangement tested materially changes Channel 14’s projected majority.
News 16 projects 52 seats for the coalition bloc
A separate News 16/Maagar Mochot survey dated October 22, reporting more than 5,000 respondents and a 1.4% statistical margin of error, gives the coalition bloc 52 seats, including Winter, against 50 for the opposition, 14 for Arab parties and four for Hendel–Zelekha.
Its party projections are: Yashar 20, Likud 17, Together 14, Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit nine, Democrats nine, Joint List nine, United Torah Judaism eight, Shas seven, Yisrael Beiteinu seven, Smotrich–Zehut seven, Ra’am five, Winter’s Am Yisrael four and Hendel–Zelekha four.
Both Winter and Hendel–Zelekha cross the threshold in this survey. The accompanying report says Eisenkot leads Netanyahu personally, despite the coalition bloc’s two-seat advantage over the opposition.
Pollster differences and threshold risks remain central
Israel Hayom and Zman Yisrael surveys published October 22 give Netanyahu’s bloc 50 and 51 seats respectively. October 21 polls from News 13 and Channel 12 give it 49 and 51. Channel 14’s projection is therefore 11–13 seats higher than those four surveys.
Bennett’s modest recovery is consistent with recent gains elsewhere, although Channel 14 still places him substantially below most competing polls. Eisenkot remains stable in Channel 14’s model, with recent results elsewhere generally at 20–23 seats.
Smotrich–Zehut’s unchanged seven seats reinforce its more secure position across polling organizations.
These persistent differences between polling organizations and their models do not establish a sudden electorate-wide shift. In Channel 14’s projection, all 44 non-Arab opposition seats combined with the 14 Arab-party seats total only 58.
Five days before the election, threshold crossings and the resulting seat allocation remain central to whether either camp can reach 61.
Gerrer Rebbe reportedly withholding election endorsement
The Gerrer Rebbe is reportedly refusing to sign the Hasidic Council of Torah Sages’ public proclamation, or “Kol Koreh,” calling for support for United Torah Judaism.
Traditionally published in Haredi newspapers on the Friday before the election, the proclamation remains under discussion. UTJ attributes the issue to efforts to add names and ensure it is issued on behalf of the entire Council, including the Gerrer Rebbe.
