Threshold risks remain central to coalition calculations
Channel 14 puts Winter at 2.2%, down from 2.4%, and Hendel-Zelekha at 2.6%, up from 2.4%, both below the 3.25% electoral threshold. Winter’s four seats in News 13 contrast with his exclusion from three October 18 surveys. Religious Zionism–Zehut receives seven seats in both new polls, appearing more secure than the two smaller lists.
Small changes around the threshold can have disproportionate parliamentary consequences. News 13 restores an exact mathematical route to 61: the non-Arab opposition’s 51 seats, Hendel-Zelekha’s four and Ra’am’s six. The previous survey produced only 60 for that combination. Its political feasibility remains uncertain, and the arithmetic represents no coalition agreement.
Netanyahu’s 50-seat bloc in News 13, including Winter, remains 11 short of a majority. Channel 14 instead gives his bloc 62 seats without Winter. No newly tested merger provides an alternative majority in either published projection.
The polls do not establish a consistent national shift. Eisenkot fluctuates in Channel 14 while remaining stable in News 13; Bennett strengthens only in News 13. Likud’s 12-seat gap between pollsters, 18 versus 30, underscores their unresolved disagreement.
Additional early-week polling figures
A Channel 12 News poll puts Eisenkot’s bloc ahead 55–51, with Hendel-Zelekha and Winter below the electoral threshold.
In an early-week polling roundup, political commentator Amit Segal listed bloc tallies of 52–51 for Channel 11, 55–51 for Channel 12, 51–50 for Channel 13, 45–62 for Channel 14 and 49–57 for Channel 15. His summary did not specify complete bloc definitions or individual survey dates. Segal also warned that eight Knesset seats were being lost below the threshold and that results could change dramatically.
Netanyahu promises Ben-Gvir a senior ministerial role
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir claimed Netanyahu’s office had assured European Union countries that he would be excluded from the next government. Likud dismissed the claim as “false political spin” and accused him of engaging in “friendly fire.”
Responding to Ben-Gvir’s campaign ahead of the October 27 election, Netanyahu said:
“Don’t fall for the spin — he will be a senior minister in our government.”
Netanyahu has previously ruled out giving Ben-Gvir the Defense or National Security portfolios, saying both will remain with Likud.
Tibi pledges to enable an alternative government
Ahmad Tibi said:
“After the elections, we will enable the formation of an alternative government and remove Netanyahu and Ohana from office.”
