Contrasting election projections
October 19 polls ahead of the October 27 election project sharply different outcomes. Channel 14 gives Netanyahu’s bloc 62 seats without Winter, the non-Arab opposition 45 and Arab parties 13. News 13 gives Netanyahu’s bloc 50, including Winter, the non-Arab opposition 51, Arab parties 15 and Hendel-Zelekha separately four.
News 13 gives Eisenkot/Yashar 20, Likud 18 and Bennett/Together 14 seats; the Democrats and Joint List nine each; Yisrael Beiteinu eight; Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism–Zehut seven each; Ra’am six; and Winter and Hendel-Zelekha four each.
Compared with October 14, Bennett gains two seats while Eisenkot and Likud remain unchanged. Religious Zionism–Zehut gains one, while Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism each lose one. Netanyahu’s bloc falls from 51 to 50 and the non-Arab opposition rises from 50 to 51.
Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 46%–38% on suitability for prime minister. The survey included 1,016 respondents, reported a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points and preceded Gantz’s withdrawal announcement.
Channel 14 gives Likud 30 and Eisenkot/Yashar 19 seats; Bennett/Together, the Democrats and Shas 10 each; United Torah Judaism and the Joint List eight each; Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism–Zehut seven each; Yisrael Beiteinu six; and Ra’am five.
Compared with October 18, Likud gains one seat and Netanyahu’s bloc rises from 61 to 62. Eisenkot falls from 22 to 19 after a two-seat gain in the preceding survey. The Democrats rise from eight to 10 and Bennett remains at 10. The non-Arab opposition falls from 46 to 45, with Arab parties unchanged at 13.
Netanyahu’s suitability lead over Eisenkot widens from 51%–49% to 54%–46%. NEXT DATA surveyed 454 respondents on October 19.
Thresholds and coalition options
Channel 14 puts Winter at 2.2%, down from 2.4%, and Hendel-Zelekha at 2.6%, up from 2.4%, below the 3.25% threshold. Winter’s four seats in News 13 contrast with his exclusion from three October 18 surveys. Religious Zionism–Zehut receives seven seats in both new polls, appearing more secure than the two smaller lists.
News 13’s non-Arab opposition, Hendel-Zelekha and Ra’am total 61, compared with 60 in its previous survey. Political feasibility remains uncertain, and the arithmetic represents no coalition agreement. Netanyahu’s bloc remains 11 short of a majority. No newly tested merger yields an alternative majority in either published projection.
The polls establish no consistent national shift: Eisenkot fluctuates in Channel 14 but remains stable in News 13, while Bennett strengthens only in News 13. Likud’s 12-seat gap between pollsters underscores their unresolved disagreement.
A Channel 12 News poll puts Eisenkot’s bloc ahead 55–51, with Winter and Hendel-Zelekha below the threshold.
Amit Segal’s early-week roundup lists 52–51 for Channel 11, 55–51 for Channel 12, 51–50 for Channel 13, 45–62 for Channel 14 and 49–57 for Channel 15, without full bloc definitions or individual survey dates. He warned that eight seats were being lost below the threshold and results could change dramatically.
